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cách chơi tài xỉu:Weak ringgit versus high-income aspiration

cách chơi tài xỉu:Weak ringgit versus high-income aspiration

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Structural issues: A money changer holding the ringgit and US dollar notes. The ringgit’s long-term structural decline has yet to garner the urgent attention it deserves.

THE ringgit’s rapid fall against the US dollar this year to levels unseen since the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) has shocked many in Malaysia. Year-to-date, it has fallen by about 13%.

Against this backdrop, fears that Malaysia could be facing a looming economic crisis had been stoked further by depressing reports of widespread shortages and hardship in crisis-hit Sri Lanka.

To be sure, we are not in crisis, at least not of the type similar to Sri Lanka.

Our country remains financially stable.

The economic recovery continues, and growth momentum remains positive.

Exports, for example, have been seeing double-digit growth since beginning 2021.

The current ringgit weakness against the US dollar, like many other currencies, is driven in part by the US central bank’s outsized interest rate hikes.

Heightened global risks, which have led to a “flight to safety” phenomenon favouring US assets, have also not helped.

To calm sentiment, government officials have come out to assert that the ringgit’s fall does not reflect the state of the economy.

Explaining away concerns triggered by the ringgit’s precipitous weakening may have helped to do this.

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However, it does not contribute towards conversations about the ringgit’s long-term structural decline, nor address concerns on whether ongoing global economic, financial, and geopolitical events could further cement this decline.

For the record, we think the ringgit’s long-term structural weakening is a symptomatic manifestation of long-running deep-seated structural issues.

For example, on the fiscal and debt front, Malaysia’s metrics – for example tax-to-gross domestic product (GDP), revenue-to-GDP, debt-to-GDP, and debt service ratio – remain on a concerning trend.

Tax-to-GDP, for example, first breached below the World Bank’s recommended 15% level in 2014 to 14.6%.

By 2020, our tax-to-GDP had fallen to 11.4%, well below the Asia and Pacific average of 19.1%.

This is extremely concerning because tax revenue above 15% of GDP, according to the World Bank, is key to economic growth.

There have been fiscal reform attempts.

However, these attempts have been beset by a lack of political will, as evidenced by, among other things, policy flip-flops.

The ringgit has, as such, remained entrenched on a long-term structural downtrend.

Meanwhile, short-sighted narratives triggered by the ringgit’s quick decline this year have also not helped.

The narrative that a weak ringgit will benefit exporters, for example, also distracts from the aspiration of the 12th Malaysia Plan (12MP from 2021 to 2025).

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